“To fulfill Sechin’s wish, the law will have to be changed, which will lead to the loss of Gazprom’s export monopoly” – Mikhail Krutikhin

This story is quite long – everyone knows that at one time there were proposals to merge Rosneft with Gazprom to create a colossal state oil and gas monopoly-empire. According to many sources, Igor Ivanovich Sechin was behind this. Similar proposals from Rosneft were made for the Siberia gas pipeline to supply gas to China.

In this case, Sechin is simply trying to seize the moment – the threat that Nord Stream 2 will not be fully exploited, as well as the fact that, according to European laws, half of its capacity should belong to third suppliers. Under these pretexts, Sechin wants to organize himself a part of the export gas business.

To implement Sechin’s plans, it is necessary to abolish or revise the gas export law, which makes Gazprom a monopoly in the pipeline business, or to organize gas supplies through Gazprom on some commission terms. The problem is that gas supplies through Gazprom on commission terms will mean that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline will contain Gazprom’s gas, even if it is accepted for commission from other suppliers. This will still remain a violation of European norms, and the likelihood of such a decision is not very high.

In theory, it is possible to circumvent European laws if the Russian gas export law is abolished. Since this gas belongs to some other company, it will have the opportunity, on equal terms with Gazprom, to make full use of the pipelines’ capacities, and not only of Nord Stream 2, but also of other gas pipelines that are exported. And then it will affect not only Rosneft, but also other suppliers from whom they consume gas. Almost all Russian oil companies have gas and would like to export it. This will mean competition in the European markets between gas from Gazprom and other Russian suppliers. This is what Gazprom is trying to prevent.

Gazprom has large reserves, but the reserves of other companies, which in this case can be exported, are very significant. We must not forget that earlier Rosneft even entered into an agreement with BP on gas supplies from Russia, if any conditions arise for this. So there are already contracts for such gas.

So far, I am skeptical that the Russian export law may be canceled. But the situation with Nord Stream 2 is such that something will still have to be done if commission gas is recognized in Europe as gas belonging to Gazprom.