However, not all politics is a show. Domestic politics, taxes, diseases, road construction, laws are real things that concern every person, but high imperial geopolitics is 99% of the show and fooling around. When you speak directly about it, it sounds indecent, but I can afford it, because I am a marginal, a freak, and the American Solovievs and European Solovievs have to roll on the floor and gnaw on the microphone.
We have been hearing rumors of an invasion of Ukraine over the past few weeks, but even if we forget all of Putin’s background story described above and start with a blank slate, we would like to get an answer to the question: why the hell would he attack Ukraine? It is not so easy to capture it, the Ukrainians have an army, and it is quite strong. Walking will not work, you will have to lay down many thousands of lives. Suppose, after all, he laid it down, surrounded it, captured it, what is Putin going to do next?
The West will go mad. Now it is winter, the Europeans are in a bad position and will buy your gas, but winter will end, and in the spring they will simply send Putin to hell, buy liquefied gas at a higher price, disconnect Russia from Swift, impose sanctions on Putin.
You will pay dearly for this and you will lose thousands of people on the battlefield. And this cannot be hidden, because Ukraine is not a fantastic DNR. There are no tractor drivers there, these are regular military units. Will the Russians like it? Covid in Russia, high prices in Russia, people are tired and annoyed. What will an ordinary Russian person say? “Are you pissed off? Why are you attached to this Ukraine? Don’t you want to remember Russia? Remember that you are the president of Russia, not of Ukraine? ” Yes, the Russians will not say this directly, but they will think and feel, no matter how much the Skabeyevs and Simonyans may sound.
Your rating, for which you are doing all this, will fly to hell. Yes, at first there will be an explosion, because adrenaline, but this will pass, and nothing but disgust, irritation and misunderstanding will remain. So, he seized Ukraine, quarreled with the West, and brought down the rating. But why do you need all this?
And what are you going to do with Ukraine? The country is home to 35 million people. Let’s say that you immediately leave western Ukraine alone, because to climb there is absolute madness. After all, the Ukrainians will arrange a guerrilla war for you, as in 1943, and what will you do then? Burn down villages? Hang? Okay, captured eastern Ukraine. Let’s say that 20 million people gained control over the population. They will hate you – unprovoked war, aggression, destruction of the state. You will have to find some collaborator, put him at the head of the Ukrainian government, declare Ukraine formally independent. You will have to pour trillions into Ukraine. Where do you get them from? This is pure distilled madness, no matter how you look at it.
Let’s consider a more local and theoretically more possible option – you will not attack any Ukraine and will arrange a zahora in Donbass on the model of 2008. Your figures from the DPR shoot at the Ukrainians – an escalation begins, Ukraine is gradually drawn in and hostilities begin. If murdered children are shown on TV, the inhabitants of Russia will be indignant, there will be a rise, a desire to protect. What is the purpose of this complex operation? Do you remember the Ukrainian army. The Macrons will arrive and endless negotiations begin. The status quo will recover, as in Georgia in 2008, but there will be many killed. You will raise your rating a little, this war will not require huge expenses, but this is theoretically, but practically – sanctions will be heaped on you. With the irritation that already exists in the West, no matter how much you say that the Ukrainians started the war, everyone will say that it is you who are to blame.
To start a war, Ukraine must send troops. Saakashvili sent troops into South Ossetia in 2008, really started, and Putin defended himself. It seems to me that Zelensky is not such an adventurer as Saakashvili, and will not succumb to Putin’s provocation. These will shoot, the Ukrainians will answer, but artillery duels are not yet a pretext for a major war. If you want to make such a mess, you need the Ukrainians to start serious military operations, then you have the moral right to answer them.
What if they don’t start? After all, Zelensky remembers the fate of Saakashvili, he understands that his army will be ground up, and this will be the end for him, because his rating is already being devoured by terrible scandals in Kiev. And what does Putin gain from such local turmoil in Ukraine? A slight rise in the rating, Western sanctions and finally ditched attempts to agree on something with this very Ukraine. If he needs to attract attention, then he has already achieved this – he wrote a provocative, mocking letter, it is clear that the gentlemen in cork helmets will do their part of the game in return. They will cackle, wave their hands, offer talks about missiles, about this, about this, and the meat grinder will turn – “the Russians are pouring from the empty into the American empty”, “the American ones are pouring from the empty into the Russian empty.” Hundreds of American correspondents will fly and beg Putin for an interview, ask him servile questions, some women with bare legs will sit, and Putin will lasciviously look at their legs – and life is good. And you don’t need to shoot at anyone, you just need to threaten. Although, of course, it is unpleasant for people to hang around near Smolensk and build dugouts.
Some commentators have outlined crazy ideas that Putin spoke to Comrade Xi before sending the letter to the Americans. They say they have an agreement – Putin is attacking Ukraine, and the Chinese are attacking Taiwan. There are two fronts, the West is in a difficult situation and will be unable to oppose them with anything. This is a good idea, the main thing is not to confuse, so that Putin does not attack Taiwan, and the Chinese attack Kiev. In a difficult geopolitical situation, such miracles are also possible. If the Kurds attacked Poland from Belarus, then the Russians can attack Taiwan.
I do not believe in all these analogies with the Second World War (the axis is Berlin-Rome-Tokyo, and here is Moscow-Beijing). The Chinese have other concerns besides encouraging Putin in his geopolitical madness. I think the Chinese colleague laughed: “Play the fool. I would trade with you. You, you see, get out of the pool and think, what else to do? We have more serious concerns in China. ” So Comrade Xi could react. Of course, in the UN, he will support Putin, but China is not a militant country, but to start a big war over PR … The Chinese have the opportunity to attract attention without him.
It is Russia that is forced to strum. An empty barrel thunders, but a full one is silent. Russia is an empty barrel, where rocket nuts are rattling, and China is a real country.