“Moscow asked for the impossible in order to bargain with pleasure.” Alexander Golts on Russia’s proposal for NATO

In its version of the treaty, Russia mixes things that are rational and attainable with things that are irrational and unattainable. The general message of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is that, in the interests of Russia’s security, NATO countries should abandon expansion to the East and admitting new members, which is impossible. Thus, NATO must recognize Russia’s right to veto decisions – that is, the right of a country that is not a member of the Alliance to make decisions by the Alliance itself.

The second group of Russian demands is quite rational, namely that NATO and Russia should not engage in military activities, including the deployment of weapons, that could threaten the security of another country. This is a perfectly reasonable and legal requirement.

I think that these documents represent what in diplomatic language is called a “request position” – when at the beginning of negotiations a party puts forward proposals absolutely unacceptable to the other side in order to bargain for a long time and with pleasure.

It is inconceivable to imagine that NATO will agree to the requirement not to deploy military contingents on the territory of those members of the Alliance who joined it after 1997. Thus, NATO would have to remove multinational battalions from the Baltic territory, where the Americans would have to abandon their bases. This seems to be irrational and unrealizable. Let me remind you that these bases appeared as a reaction to the Ukrainian crisis, the annexation of Crimea to Russia and the war in Donbass. To remove these military contingents and bases, in my opinion, is now almost impossible.

In the scenario proposed by Russia, there is an opportunity to talk about military confidence-building measures. There are reasonable proposals to limit the maneuvers of both sides to a certain number and at a certain distance from the borders. But in this case, how will Russia conduct its maneuvers near Ukraine? Many questions remain.

One way or another, an agreement between Russia and NATO is urgently needed, given that Russia and the West have entered a new period of the Cold War. An agreement is needed that would drive the military activities of the parties into some verifiable and limited framework. Whether both sides are ready for this is a matter of political will. I do not exclude that Moscow just wants to fool around again. In any case, long negotiations are better than a long war. I don’t know if the next war will be long, but negotiations are better anyway.