In terms of excess mortality from coronavirus, Russia is in third place in the world after Bulgaria and Peru. And in terms of the absolute number of excess deaths, we were already the second after India, overtaking the United States. These figures of Rosstat are actually data from the Ministry of Health, since Rosstat itself does not come up with diagnoses, but simply collects statistics from the USR registry office, where registry office employees enter data from medical death certificates in the form of the Ministry of Health No. 106 / u-08, which were brought to the registry office relatives or legal representatives of the deceased.
So, according to the operational data of Rosstat, the number of deaths with the established diagnosis of COVID-19 was 75 thousand people in October, of which for 70 thousand the disease became the main cause of death or significantly influenced the development of the underlying chronic disease, of which 59 thousand with a confirmed PCR test … At the same time, excess mortality, that is, in the simplest case, the difference between the number of deaths in October 2021 and October 2019, reached 97,297 people.
All five numbers turned out to be a record for the entire history of the COVID-19 pandemic since April 2020. And, as usual, these figures turned out to be much higher than the daily statistics of the headquarters and the Stopkoronavirus.rf website, which in October showed 31,551 official deaths from confirmed COVID-19. However, this is also a record.
By allegations authorities, this discrepancy occurs because “the headquarters takes into account the current cases in which the coronavirus was confirmed, and Rosstat – also cases after the autopsy. <...> The Headquarters publishes daily operational data on deaths among those who had a positive PCR test. And Rosstat later collects and refines the data collected after the postmortem autopsy – in this case, the diagnosis of coronavirus as the main cause of death can also be clarified. “
Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova stated that the headquarters only takes into account cases where additional confirmation is not required based on the autopsy results. “So this is a clear death rate from covid,” she said. At the same time, the final diagnosis is made after the examination, and therefore the data taken into account in the operational statistics of the headquarters can change both up and down, added the Deputy Prime Minister. “When do we correct the data? For example, it may be determined that a patient had a completely different diagnosis, but nevertheless tested positive for covid, but the underlying cause was not covid. ” asserted Golikova. In this case, infection with coronavirus is still taken into account in the documents, since COVID-19 could accelerate the course of a chronic disease “and ultimately, probably, became the cause of death.” The headquarters also statedthat takes data directly from medical organizations, and Rosstat – from civil registration records ”.
Marina Patyashina, head of the Rospotrebnadzor department for the Republic of Tatarstan, explained the discrepancies in the statistics of the headquarters and Rosstat by the fact that the virus “is not always confirmed.” In Tatarstan, these discrepancies are traditionally the largest of all constituent entities of Russia. For example, for September 2021, Rosstat data exceeded Rosstat figures by 19 times. “We are looking for the pathogen in the nasopharynx, and if a person has pneumonia, then the pathogen has descended into the lower respiratory tract and it is impossible to find it in the throat,” – asserted chief sanitary doctor. According to her, in this case, the patient is diagnosed with “COVID-19 unconfirmed”, he receives the necessary medical care, but does not get into the official statistics of the republic’s authorities as a patient with coronavirus.
Rosstat also has several different numbers of deaths from / with coronavirus: 1) the patient died from COVID-19 confirmed by PCR test as the main cause of death; 2) the patient died from COVID-19, confirmed by clinical manifestations, as from the main cause of death, while the virus itself was not identified using the PCR test (it does not matter whether the test was performed or not); 3) COVID-19 is not the main cause of death, but had a significant impact on the development of fatal complications of the disease; 4) COVID-19 is not the main cause of death and did not have a significant impact on the development of fatal complications of the disease.
But that’s not all. For a long time, Rosstat has had operational, monthly statistics collected by the date of registration of death in the registry office, and there is final annual statistics: by cause of death and by month of death. Moreover, the distribution by months of death in the annual statistics is made by the date of the actual onset of death. Annual statistics are available starting in June next year, and operational statistics are now published on Friday evenings 4-6 weeks after the end of the reporting month. The annual statistics contain clarifications and corrections of the main cause of death based on the data of final death certificates instead of preliminary ones.
And while the notorious Stopkoronavirus.rf website, which collects data from regional headquarters, had 57,555 deaths from the officially confirmed COVID on January 1, the sum of deaths from COVID-19 with a confirmed PCR test in the monthly operational data of Rosstat gave first 86,522 people, and after clarification in March – 87,554 people, and in total, 103,992 and 104,850 people died from the main cause of death of COVID-19 (both with a confirmed and an unconfirmed PCR test). At the same time, there were three times more excess deaths compared to April-December 2019 – 336 668.
But in June, Rosstat’s final annual data showed 144,691 people who died from the main cause of death, COVID-19, and the excess deaths turned out to be 352,082.
Today Russia has come close to one million excess deaths: from the beginning of the pandemic to the end of November, 951 thousand have already been accumulated and the mark of one million will be passed by the end of the year. As a percentage of the normal number of deaths, it is the fourth largest in Europe – after Kosovo, Albania and North Macedonia, almost the poorest countries on the continent.
And in the world, Russia is in the second ten of more than 110 countries. In terms of this indicator, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Mexico, Colombia, Iran, Paraguay, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are ahead of us. Judging by the apparently false data of the headquarters, the Stopkoronavirus.rf website and Rospotrebnadzor, Russia is in 35th place in the world in terms of the number of deaths from COVID-19 per capita with its 276 thousand official deaths from the official COVID-19 disease.
But the main thing is that in terms of excess mortality, Russia is in third place in the world, and in terms of the absolute number of excess deaths, it has overtaken the United States and is still second only to India. Although in terms of population, Russia is only in ninth place.