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What is the threat to the economy and public administration of a poorly rewritten population? Our demographic statistics are based on the census results. All demographic estimates of the size and age composition of the population of the country and regions are based on census data and data from the current registration of births, deaths and migration. Births and deaths are recorded in full, with migration the situation is much worse: people move, and there is an error in estimating the population size. But with an inaccurate census, this error will be much more serious, and will persist until the next census. As a result, not only all demographic indicators (for example, birth rates or life expectancy) will be distorted, but also indicators of social statistics that are tied to demography.
Information about the level of income, poverty, levels of consumption of goods and services, the number of employees will also be distorted, and this information is used to build development plans, to determine the costs of education, health care, culture, which, it turns out, will initially be inaccurate and contain errors. In this regard, I recall the wonderful old cartoon “The Kid Who Could Count to 10”. The kid annoyed all the other characters with his statistical experiments. But at a critical moment, he counted the ferry passengers, of whom there were 10, that is, exactly as many as the ferry could accommodate, which allowed the ferry to hit the road. So, reliable census results make the path easier and more reliable.
It is important that the portrait of the country, which will be looked at not only by us, but also by the inhabitants of other countries, is clear and realistic. But in our, Russian case, one involuntarily thinks about the surrealistic motives in this portrait. The main question relates to the preparation of the census. It is no coincidence that even during the census period, many residents of Russia did not know that it was being carried out. Scarce information about the census appeared only after the September elections, although in my opinion the census is even more important than the elections. It is no coincidence that the census is spelled out in the Constitution of such an election-loving country as the United States. Unfortunately, the candidates for deputies did not remember about the census. Census ads flashed on television, but were lost among ads for banking, hair growth, and nail fungus.
The current census used the Internet for the first time as one of the main means of obtaining information. But how well has this system been tested? Most importantly, the citizens were not explained that in the household the census form is filled out for all members of the household. As a result, the result was obtained that over 100% of the population was rewritten, which is roughly equivalent to the fact that “more than 100% of voters voted at the polling station.” Apparently, each of the people living together often copied the other members of the household. Now, apparently, there is a lot of work to be done to eliminate the consequences of this “double”, and somewhere, probably, “triple” counting.
In the United States, the census was carried out last year, and the spears of American politicians and experts are still breaking around it, despite the high level of organization. As in Russia, this was the first census using the Internet. But it has been tested since 2012, including opinion polls conducted by the independent organization Gallup to find out the attitude of residents of the country to the census, to questions and methods of maintaining the confidentiality of respondents. In the United States, as in other developed countries, many consider the census unnecessary, but by the time the census was carried out, the number of such dissidents had decreased. In Russia, however, they did not want to carry out explanatory work.
Perhaps this is due to the fact that the Russian census is relatively inexpensive. In the United States, the census cost taxpayers $ 7.2 billion, in Russia – about $ 440 million. A survey of a respondent in the States cost about $ 22, in Russia – $ 3. At the same time, almost $ 300 million was allocated for the Duma elections in September 2021 alone. As you know, “it’s never cheap.” A population census is a case when in its preparation and conduct it is necessary to be guided by the English proverb: “We are not rich enough to buy cheap things.”
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