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All of this sets a very different drama for the movement towards 2024 than Putin would like. He would like to show the class, to demonstrate to everyone that he can lay the opposition on the shoulder blades with one left and achieve any result that he wants. But it didn’t work out. Less than 50% of United Russia party lists, Friday queues of forced state employees, scandalous “electronic voting” – all this will only strengthen the understanding that the Russian authorities have finally lost the support and trust of the people and can only stay in power by Lukashenka’s methods. Instead of an uncontested leader with a high rating, Putin is approaching 2024 more like a lame duck – perhaps armed with the FSB, Rosgvardia, Roskomnadzor and a new heap of repressive laws.
Yes, no doubt it is all power. But the wave of mass popular discontent was the same. We saw it with our own eyes last weekend, and believe me, those in power clearly read this signal. No matter what skeptics write on the Internet, in high offices they received a very clear understanding – the country no longer loves them, and they can only be held by force. They are clearly not going to surrender, but the Russians also do not want to submit. The absence of post-election protests should not be embarrassing: people do not want to go head-on to beatings, arrests and criminal cases without guarantees that the protests will change the situation. But the protest energy has not gone anywhere – and the brutal falsifications have rather added power to it.
All of this is leading the country to a very bad scenario. Putin is stubborn, does not want to allow a more competitive political system, surrender power, change course, although society sends him a completely unambiguous signal that this is the main request for today. Promises to respond by force to all who disagree. But the number of those who disagree is large and growing. As has so often happened in our history, such tenacity of rulers in the face of requests for change often leads to an explosion. In this situation, he is not far off.
The absence of mass protests should not be read as the consent of society – it simply acts cautiously because of the risks of reprisals. However, at the first misfire, people will prove themselves. We need to wait patiently and work to expand the protest audience. The necessary moment for society will come, but in power it is unlikely, and last weekend we saw that society has already made its choice. History put Putin on a countdown – to paraphrase Lincoln, you can intimidate some people for a long time, or most people for a short time, but you cannot keep the whole country in fear and obedience all the time if the country does not want to.
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