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Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina expects inflation to peak this year “somewhere around 7%” this month as well. About this she told in an interview with RBC. In the second half of 2022, inflation will drop to 4%.
According to the chairman of the Central Bank, a new economic crisis does not threaten the world yet. The crisis scenario of the Central Bank for 2023 “is absolutely conditional and is needed to show in the three-year forecast period what the consequences can be if this scenario is realized.”
The regulator is most concerned about the growth of unsecured consumer lending, nevertheless, the Central Bank does not believe that a bubble has inflated in this market. As soon as the Central Bank is allowed to directly limit loans to the population, it will do it, but for now the bank will raise standards. “Maybe it sounds scary, but they (limits) exist in many countries,” noted Elvira Nabiullina.
According to her, the level of credit penetration is not very high yet. “But we see, unfortunately, not only that new borrowers come to banks, but the number of people already with a large volume of loans is growing,” she added.
The Central Bank management is alarmed by the growth of mortgage lending. Such loans have to be serviced for many years, and this is possible only with a stable and sufficiently high level of family income. “I recently looked at statistics on the proportion of households with a mortgage in different countries, depending on the average level of disposable income. And by these ratios, we are already practically approaching the limit of mortgage growth. We must be very careful to ensure that the mortgage grows in line with the growth of incomes of the population, ”said Elvira Nabiullina.
In August annual inflation approached to 7%: the growth of consumer prices accelerated to 6.68%, follows from the data of Rosstat. This is a record figure for the past five years. In September, another pro-inflationary factor was added – the effect of pre-election payments promised by President Vladimir Putin to pensioners, military personnel, cadets and law enforcement officers.
“As domestic demand is still overheated, as external tourism is limited, there are imbalances in the food and non-food markets. Additional consumer spending can further affect prices, as we saw in August, when payments for school-age children were received, ”- said RIA Novosti Chief Economist at Sova Capital Artem Zaigrin.
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