“By October, you can expect $ 1200 per thousand cubic meters of gas, but inside the country, fuel prices will not rise” – Sergei Pikin

The price began to jump so actively from the middle of summer, especially after an accident occurred at one of the Gazprom plants – the gas supply through the pipeline was temporarily stopped, and then its volume was halved. The underlying reason is simple – over the winter, the volumes of European storage facilities have greatly decreased. It was necessary to accumulate gas over the summer, but this was not done for various reasons. Liquefied gas goes mainly to Asia, because prices are higher there, and it goes to Europe in minimal volumes. The second reason is that it was a hot summer, which led to additional gas consumption. Plus, the generation of electricity produced by wind was reduced, which also led to an increase in gas consumption.

Now there is a certain deficit in relation to the average level of filling of gas storage facilities, by about 15 billion cubic meters. Winter is close, the heating season can begin in a month and a half. And therefore the price is growing, and we see that the reorientation of liquefied gas flows from Asia to Europe has begun.

The rise in prices will continue in October. Now we will pass the level of $ 1,000 per cubic meter of gas. At such a price, gas will no longer go to Asia, but to Europe. It will only arrive in October, so you can expect a price tag of $ 1100-1200.

In Russia, the domestic and foreign gas markets are in no way connected with each other, unlike the oil market. The gas market inside the country is regulated by the state – there is no connection with external prices, so if gas in Europe costs even under a million, nothing will change for Russian consumers. There is information that they are trying to raise prices at gas stations, but this is an unscrupulous game that will last until the first visit of the Federal Antimonopoly Service.

As for the budget, our export duty is fixed and does not depend on prices, but depends on the volume of pumping. This year we will most likely repeat the 2015 record for gas exports or even renew it. Gazprom is a joint-stock company where the state has a controlling stake, which means that the more revenue, the more profit, more dividends to the state treasury. The priority is the complete gasification of the country until 2030. That is, the more Gazprom’s revenue, the more financial opportunities for gasification.