The poll war. In the 198th district of Moscow, a real pre-election struggle is unfolding for a place in the “Smart Vote”

According to VTsIOM, 12% of respondents are ready to vote for the oppositionist Litvinovich (17% trust her, 5% do not trust her). Bryukhanova, on whom the head of her campaign headquarters and director of the City Projects Foundation Maxim Katz has the greatest hopes, took only third place in the list prepared for the Presidential Administration with 10% of voters’ support. Only 14% of the respondents trust the mundep, 9% do not.

It is worth noting that earlier VTsIOM electoral polls coincided strikingly with the official election results in situations where the result was controlled (for example, in the 2018 presidential elections forecast VTsIOM coincided with the VTsIOM exit poll with an accuracy of one percent), while in a situation of relatively uncontrolled elections VTsIOM fails to predict the result (for example, before the 2013 Moscow mayoral elections, VTsIOM predicted Navalny 15%, and according to official results, he scored 27%).

A similar survey in the opposition district was conducted by the sociological company Russian Field. According to the results of the survey, for which refers Kommersant, a self-nominated candidate Bryukhanova, took the first place in comparison with the VTsIOM data, on the contrary – 28.1% of voters are ready to vote for her, 32% know her. Spravossk Khovanskaya is in second place – 24.1% know a State Duma deputy (she has been in parliament since 2003), and 20.8% are ready to vote. Litvinovich has a recognition rate of 15.6% in the Russian Field poll, and only 13.9% are ready to vote for her.

Sociologist, Professor Shaninki Grigory Yudin pointed outthat the Russian Field research methodology itself is not representative, since it does not meet the criteria for the total population of voters in the 198th constituency. In particular, the company conducted a survey on the street, which creates “great incentives to select the most comfortable points for themselves (for example, at campaign stands) and the most comfortable respondents,” Yudin said.

“In conditions when it is not clear who was interviewed, one should treat the data obtained with great caution,” he summed up. In the press service of Russian Field, all claims of expert Yudin denied, referring to the fact that they conducted similar polls “all summer”, therefore, in dynamics, all data on the support of candidates converge.

Russian Field project manager Artemy Vvedensky, in a comment for The Insider, on the contrary, criticized the VTsIOM sample. “In the study, I did not see data on the age and sex composition of the respondents, either by the CATI method or by street polls. If we have data on the sex and age of the respondents, it would be possible to estimate the bias of sympathies for a particular candidate. Also, the data collection period is quite long – from 1 to 11 September. <...> It is rather strange that our street investigations are fighting all the telephone sets that are in the public domain, “he said.

Maksim Katz, commenting on the discrepancies in ratings in a conversation with The Insider, expressed the opinion that VTsIOM did not conduct a poll at all in the 198th district, where Bryukhanova is running. According to him, there were no other pollsters in the Leningrad District, except for the Russian Field. Katz also ruled out that the poll could be conducted directly at the campaign cubes, which is a violation. “This is similar to the standard VTsIOM forecast, which they make to show the target results that the administration is counting on. [президента]”, – said Katz.