“The US has been promoting a new Marshall Plan. But Afghanistan is not Germany. ” Arkady Dubnov on why the Taliban won without a fight

But I do not think that a threat to the world can arise so much, as they said in Soviet times, that some Western contingents will have to return. This is a grave for British, Americans, Russians. Who wants to dig their own grave again with their own hands?

No one predicts the penetration of the Taliban into the territory of the Central Asian countries after they came to power, because the Taliban do not need this, their tasks are different. Another thing is that as they fulfill their promises to eliminate ties with ISIS and Al-Qaeda, they will either defiantly or not defiantly push these people out of Afghanistan, including across the northern borders, that is, to Central Asia.

There is already evidence that the ISIS or Alkaidites released from prisons are incorporated into groups of refugees who have already tried to enter the territory of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. They were separated, the Uzbek special services proved to be quite effective. That is why, among other things, Uzbeks are pursuing a very tough policy towards refugees. For example, a caravan of the closest circle of Afghan Marshal Dostum was deployed yesterday on the Friendship Bridge across the Amu Darya. Dostum himself flew by helicopter and is hiding somewhere in Uzbekistan, and these people were deployed. This is not because in Uzbekistan they see former jihadists among them, but because they generally refuse to accept refugees, with the exception of some isolated cases.

Neighbors, China and New Corruption

One can be sure that as soon as at least some kind of power in Kabul is established, Pakistan will be the first to recognize this power. Indeed, in the 90s the postulate was close to the truth that the Taliban are derivatives of the Pakistani special services. Today the Taliban have taken on a life of their own, but the golden key to pacifying or regulating the behavior of the Taliban is, of course, in Islamabad, although the gilding of the 90s has long since disappeared from it.

The question is whether the Taliban recognize Saudi Arabia, which was once one of the three countries that recognized this regime in the late 90s. The third country, by the way, was Turkmenistan, which has an amazing ability to deal only with security problems along its borders, and then at least the grass will not grow.

But China, in contrast to the same 90s, today has a significant interest in Afghanistan. Recently, the Taliban went to a bridegroom in Beijing, where they met with the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Nobody knows what the level of promises and agreements was, but it was significant, and the Chinese were very interested in this fact becoming public, so that everyone would understand that the Chinese golden paw lies on Afghanistan. They will spare no money. In a sense, they will replace the United States in terms of the prospects for corrupting the new elite.