“Big problems and forced decarbonization await us” – climatologists on the UN report

Vasily Yablokov

– The fact that it was bad was known for a long time, but now it has been confirmed that it is definitely bad and even worse. It has long been proven that global climate change and temperature are linked to an increase in the number of extreme weather events, but now it becomes clear that there are even more of them, and they are becoming more intense in the dynamics that have been observed recently for floods, fires, tornadoes and other extreme weather events. phenomena. The actions that are being taken now are clearly insufficient to reduce the impact on the climate. Emissions continue to rise. They fell heavily into a pandemic, but the trend is still such that all countries and all economies still emit a lot of greenhouse gases, although in recent years there has been a revolutionary trend that all countries have announced goals to achieve hydrocarbon neutrality, but it is obvious that so far these are all words, but in fact there are still a lot of emissions that threaten the future. Also, there were no longer any doubts (although there were none) that there is a connection between greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Now this connection has been scientifically proven and it is already an irrefutable scientific fact. This has been confirmed by thousands of scientific publications. These are the main conclusions, they are, in general, so evaluative.

This is the sixth assessment report, all of these findings have been formulated in previous reports. There is growing confidence in these findings, and more and more studies support this. Since this is all a story about forecasts, those forecasts that were the most pessimistic are being played out right now.

— That is, they took the most pessimistic option?

– Not the most pessimistic, but everything goes [к этому]… There were studies that somehow everything will stabilize, the temperature will not rise so quickly, but now there is no certainty about this. It is predicted that by 2040 we will surpass the level of one and a half degrees. This is the level at which the climate is more or less stable. We have fewer and fewer opportunities to take action to mitigate impacts and stabilize the climate. The main conclusion is that we already know all these facts, but still we are dragging out everything very much and do not take the necessary actions.

— There, a separate story concerns Russia, where the rate of temperature rise is higher than in the rest of the world, and the ratio of the use of fossil energy sources is much higher than in the whole world. What awaits Russia? Are there any predictions? What are the authorities doing?

– It all depends on what decisions will be made. As well as a good script, so are bad ones. As long as Russia supports the fossil fuel industry, coal, oil and gas production and expects economic growth based on production growth, the scenario will be unfavorable not only because global processes will affect us more, but they will in any case be influenced by for geographic location. The greatest changes are observed in the Arctic. Here we are talking about what will influence Russia. If we continue to use fossil fuels in the same spirit and try to build the economy on it, then we will face big problems, because the whole world is now very quickly trying to abandon fossil fuels. Many accept the whole danger of climate change, many countries have set goals for themselves – both Western and Eastern partners – and if we do not quickly rebuild, then we will be forced to decarbonize, but not because we have found some more acceptable way, but because, that it will not be in demand, and in this regard, there may be an economic crisis. Now the government is very concerned about this issue, working groups are being discussed. I hope that in the near future it will be decided to set ambitious goals for the decarbonization of our energy sector and not try to maintain the status quo of fossil energy, discover new deposits, produce in the Arctic, export gas, oil and coal to all possible countries. In general, do not try to jump into the last carriage with all our natural resources. The more we sell and burn all this now, the more difficult it will be later.

Alexey Kokorin

This report is a much clearer drawing of the drawing of the asphalt roller, which is coming at us, which we ourselves have launched and which we must stop at least at a satisfactory level, it shows what levels there are, that is, the price. They are basically the same and, in principle, it is also clear that it is very much needed below two degrees, but there is also an option of two and a half degrees. This is the maximum that you can afford. The promises of carbohydrate neutrality, which were given by almost all the largest countries, lead to this – not one and a half, but somewhere two and a half. I must say that this report is not some kind of information bomb. There, at the level of basic concepts, everything that has already been, but much more details are given. In particular, the numerical expression of dangerous meteorological phenomena in terms of both temperature and precipitation.

As for Russia, along with a climatic skating rink, an economic skating rink is approaching it. After the majority of developed economies abandon fossil fuels, Russia will be forced for economic reasons to abandon the extraction of coal, oil and gas.

The world is on the verge of a climate catastrophe

As published on August 9 report The UN Climate Group (IPCC) emphasizes that it is human activity that leads to rapid climate change on the planet. “It is clear that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land,” the authors of the report write. The contribution of natural factors such as solar radiation and volcanic activity to global warming is estimated to be close to zero.

The average temperature of the Earth will continue to rise, and even the most significant cuts in carbon dioxide emissions do not guarantee that the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement will be met. The main goal of the agreement is to prevent the global average annual temperature on the planet from rising by more than 2 ° C from pre-industrial levels by 2100 and to do everything possible to keep warming within 1.5 ° C.

The chances of keeping warming within 1.5 ° C are estimated at 50% and only on condition that no more than 500 billion tons of CO₂, the main greenhouse gas, will be released into the atmosphere from 2020 to the end of the century. Now about 40 billion tons are thrown out per year. Thus, at the current rate, the non-return threshold will be exceeded in a decade.

The global average temperature is now about 1.1 ° C higher than at the end of the 19th century. Moreover, scientists believe that humans have already emitted enough greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to warm the planet by 1.5 ° C, but small particles of fossil fuels in the atmosphere provide a temporary cooling effect that masks the real amount of negative consequences.

Five temperature scenarios are mentioned in the IPCC report, all of which lead to the 1.5 ° C mark being passed by 2040. In one of the scenarios, the temperature begins to decrease after 2040 in connection with the beginning of a large-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the air (so far such technologies do not exist, but businessman Elon Musk promised to pay $ 100 million to whoever invents them). But in this case, one can only count on a return to the indicator of +1.4 degrees by 2100.

Forecasts show that under the current environmental policy of the authorities of different countries, catastrophic scenarios will be realized, which envisage a warming of 2.7 ° C or even 5.7 ° C by 2100. This can be caused, for example, by the progressive emission of greenhouse methane from the melting permafrost with a simultaneous decrease in the absorptive capacity of the biosphere.

Obvious global consequences of climate change: extreme high temperatures in some regions of the world, loss of Arctic ice and forest extinction. The sea level is predicted by the IPCC to rise for hundreds or thousands of years, even if global warming is stopped. With rapid warming, sea levels could rise by 15 meters by 2300.

Signs of catastrophic climate change are already visible this year in all parts of the world: floods in the Northern Hemisphere, drought in southern Europe and China, wildfires in Siberia, Greece, the western United States and Canada. Severe heatwaves, which used to occur once every 50 years, now occur about once every decade. Moreover, for the Russian Federation, these processes can be especially destructive, since the temperature in the country is growing on average twice as fast as in the world, and in the Arctic even faster. writes The Bell with reference to a member of the IPCC and one of the authors of the report, head of the laboratory of the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Sergei Gulev.

The American media call the report of the UN climate group, on which more than 200 scientists worked, “epoch-making” and “historic.” “The report should sound the death knell for coal and fossil fuels before they destroy our planet,” commented UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.

Earlier, the International Energy Agency said that in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, energy companies must stop exploration and investment in new oil and gas projects this year.