If there is an opportunity to pay 300 euros, then this is probably correct. People who run away spend all their money reserves on it. For them, 300 euros can be a decisive amount, because they have nowhere to go. And for 300 euros, maybe they will arrive and there will be something to eat. This is good for motivation.
The European Union and our friends in NATO helped to reach an agreement with Iraq. Airplanes do not fly from Iraq to Minsk. First, they postponed flights for 10 days, and now indefinitely. So collective defense works even at this level.
The largest inflow was from Iraq to Minsk. Of course, there are many more channels. The Lithuanian authorities began to act decisively and do everything to build a fence that will help border guards cope with this crisis, with this influx of migrants organized by Belarus. It will be built before the New Year. At first we thought it would take 2.5 years, but the situation is such that it is necessary to throw resources and organize. I think that such steps have already been taken.
About NATO and the fourth article <Article 4. The contracting parties will always consult each other if, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the contracting parties is threatened. – The Insider> our authorities think it’s too early. My opinion is that it’s high time. Lukashenka threatened with the words that he would bring some Muslims as armed soldiers with terrorist acts. If the head of state gives such threats, then it is quite serious.
Russia does not openly interfere in this matter. The Putin regime, of course, coordinates what they are doing, and maybe helps in some other way. Plus, the West-2021 exercise will begin soon in September. Our politicians are very sensitive to this, they can be too careful and skip temporary decisions that need to be made. This could lead to the fact that there will be even more migrants. I do not know how many of these migrants are needed for us for a serious crisis to arise in the state.
They will send them all over Europe. We already know that people come to Poland, to Latvia. There are not as many as here, but they do come to Poland. For Lithuania, this is probably better, because then we have countries that have a common misfortune, and it will be easier to act.
We do not know exactly how and what Lukashenka can go to. They can accumulate a lot of people on the Belarusian-Lithuanian border and transport a massive consignment. And this “hybrid war”, as it can be called, is interesting because the country that organizes it makes a profit out of it, because migrants pay money. And the host country, like us, for it only the damage because of this. Usually in a war there is damage to both sides, but here damage is only to the receiving side. We cannot act with such methods as Belarus, because we have democracy and humane laws. We saw how Lukashenka coped with his people, and with migrants, I think, maybe the same thing, if not worse.