Passions around Avakov have been boiling for a long time. At least two years after the presidential elections, after the 2019 parliamentary elections, such a version was discussed. In general, one must understand that Avakov is a record-holder minister. He has been in his current position for over seven years. For so long not a single minister of independent Ukraine has been in office. The previous record holder – Yuri Kravchenko, he, however, finished sadly after his resignation. And Avakov was a record holder and, of course, was one of the most influential figures in Ukrainian politics for the past five years.
Even under Poroshenko, he was one of the three or four most influential Ukrainian politicians. Moreover, he was one of the few in power, practically the only figure who could oppose Poroshenko. After the change of power, they wanted to dismiss Avakov. He always had a lot of opponents – from former regionals (anti-Maidanists) to pro-Western liberals. But most importantly, which, probably, led to the resignation, in the last year, part of the circle of President Zelensky opposed Avakov. In the end, they achieved it.
A significant motive for the resignation was the problem with the Sheremet murder case. At one time, Avakov proposed a version accusing a number of right-wing radicals of involvement in the murder of Pavel Sheremet, the suspects were arrested, but the case was stalled. It was not possible to find tangible evidence, and this was used against the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, in particular, this was noticeable during a large press conference by President Zeleny in May. It seems that part of the president’s entourage worked here against Avakov, gradually forming a set of reasons, reasons, circumstances necessary for his resignation. There have been a lot of rumors about this over the past week. There were many materials criticizing the minister. With all this, Avakov left quite nicely – he left himself, showing loyalty to the president. This leaves him an opportunity for constructive relations with Vladimir Zelensky.
It is important who will become the minister now. If this turns out to be a person associated with Avakov, then this will mean that Avakov, leaving, remains. But there is a possibility that Avakov will gradually leave on an independent political voyage. And if he does not develop a relationship with the presidential team, then he can become a partner in some other possibly new political projects. He is unlikely to strive for independent political leadership – he does not have a high personal rating, but he is, of course, a political heavyweight and can strengthen any team. I think that even if he formally leaves politics and, for example, does business, takes a pause, he can still be a significant partner, either for his former colleague and partner Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who clearly wants to return to politics, or for someone then the other.